The top of the NFL Draft feels like it’s been rounding into shape in recent weeks, as teams have grown increasingly comfortable with the most prized prospects in the class.
After numerous conversations with general managers, personnel executives and coaches around the league throughout the pre-draft season, I’ve put together my final top-10 mock draft in anticipation of Thursday night’s opening round.
Here’s how I believe it’ll play out:
1. Tennessee Titans: Cam Ward, QB, Miami
This has been the obvious pick since early March when the Titans weren’t involved in the pursuit of free agent quarterbacks Sam Darnold or Aaron Rodgers, strongly signaling their intentions to use the first pick on a QB.
There was plenty of debate throughout the college season whether Ward or Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders would be the top QB, but that discourse has been nonexistent for a couple of months. Ward has distinguished himself as the draft’s best quarterback. His arm strength, creativity and big numbers in three different offensive systems in college enticed the Titans to narrow their focus.
The Cleveland Browns and New York Giants have inquired about trading up, but it didn’t sound like the Titans even gave them a price. Those conversations centered around the three teams’ interest in making Ward the No. 1 pick.
The Titans will have a new franchise quarterback Thursday night.
Cam Ward Miami (FL) HT
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Loose, instinctive passer who can rip accurate strikes with natural rhythm
2. Cleveland Browns: Travis Hunter, CB/WR, Colorado
The Browns are expected to draft a quarterback. But for a couple of months, it hasn’t sounded like it would be this early — unless, of course, the Titans gifted them with Ward.
At this point, it’s come down to Hunter and Penn State edge rusher Abdul Carter. The Browns love both, but it’s seems like they’ve been leaning toward Hunter for quite a while. They sound comfortable using Hunter as a full-time receiver and part-time cornerback, and their offense desperately needs game-breaking talent as they figure out their long-term plan at quarterback.
With Kenny Pickett, Joe Flacco and a later pick at QB, the Browns can still dive into the more heralded quarterback pool in the 2026 draft.
Travis Hunter Colorado HT
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Will give an NFL staff exciting options on both sides of the ball
3. New York Giants: Abdul Carter, edge, Penn State
As soon as general manager Joe Schoen said the Giants wouldn’t force themselves into a QB pick, it sounded an awful lot like he was preparing the fan base to warm up to the idea of Russell Wilson starting in 2025. The Giants have done enough work on the quarterback class to believe they’ll take one eventually, just not here.
If that’s the correct read — and that’s certainly how other teams believe it’ll play out — the Giants actually have an easy decision to make. They can just take the player the Browns leave on the table.
“It’s a no-brainer,” an executive said. “You take Carter.”
“If they get Abdul Carter at No. 3, that’s an absolute win,” another executive said.
Carter is the draft’s best defensive prospect. He’s a versatile linebacker who should primarily play on the edge but can drop into space as needed. He might not have the same ceiling as Dallas Cowboys star linebacker Micah Parsons, but it might be close.
“He’s the best player in the draft,” a third executive said.
This decision could have a ripple effect, as the Giants have already invested heavily on pass rushers with Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux. No team would complain about having too many edge rushers, but the Giants do have a looming decision with Thibodeaux, the fifth pick in 2022.
The Giants have to determine soon whether they’ll exercise his fifth-year option. One executive estimated the Giants could move Thibodeaux for a third-round pick if he’s not in their long-term plans.
Sanders has drawn a lot of attention here. The Giants sent a massive contingent to his pro day and worked him out last week in Colorado as part of their final QB tour, but leaguewide opinions have varied on Sanders. Decision makers are split on his potential, so that’s a lot of risk to incur this high in the draft, especially after going 9-25 over the past two seasons.
If the Giants are comfortable enough with Sanders or even Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart, they could trade down. This pick is prime real estate for a team that desperately wants Carter (or Hunter).
Abdul Carter Penn State HT
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Projects as a 1A pass rusher, with a gift for consistently impacting backfield
4. New England Patriots: Will Campbell, OT, LSU
Will Campbell’s personality is perfect for new head coach Mike Vrabel. He’s a tough, mean, no-nonsense type of player who should set the tone in the locker room.
Campbell has the most famous arms in the draft, as the debate over his wingspan has been equal parts passionate and comical. Or maybe it’s just the umpteenth sign the draft needs to get here.
There are teams that believe there’s merit to the concern over a left tackle’s arm length, but the Patriots don’t sound worried. Plus, he’s a good player and will make an impact. For Vrabel’s first pick of his Patriots homecoming, there’s value in making the safe choice. Campbell should be a staple in the lineup for years to come.
“You can justify taking Will Campbell there,” an executive said. “That’s a Vrabel type of pick. He’s safe. He’s solid.”
The Patriots could theoretically try to trade down and hope Campbell is still there, but that’d require a team being willing to move up. Would the New York Jets or New Orleans Saints be motivated to climb for Sanders?
Missouri’s Armand Membou and Ohio State’s Josh Simmons are two more tackle options, but they’re viewed as bigger dice rolls. Some executives do believe Membou and Simmons have higher ceilings than Campbell, but they have to show they’re motivated to reach those ceilings.
“Simmons is a hell of a f—ing player, a really nice athlete,” an executive said.
But when it comes down to it, the executive added, “Campbell makes a lot of sense.”
Will Campbell LSU HT
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Short arms but wins with athleticism, strength and competitiveness
5. Jacksonville Jaguars: Mason Graham, DT, Michigan
This is where the draft figures to get a little more interesting, as general manager James Gladstone and head coach Liam Coen are coming in with a blank slate. They’re more of a mystery.
But sticking with the theme of making the safe pick on more of a sure thing, Graham would be a solid selection. He should start right away and help edge rushers Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker thrive. If the Jaguars are drafting the best player available, the decision should come down to Graham and Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty.
Opinions on the Jaguars’ plan have been wide-ranging. They could take a left tackle, a wideout such as Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan or a tight end such as Penn State’s Tyler Warren. There are valid cases to make for all of them with an offensive-minded coach in Coen, which also brings up the idea of trading down if they can find a dance partner. But this draft is deep in talent at running back, tight end and receiver, so a blue-chipper such as Graham represents good value.
Mason Graham Michigan HT
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Leverage monster who destroys blocks with strength, quickness and motor
6. Las Vegas Raiders: Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State
This pick feels cliche at this point. But after speaking to enough people around the league who also believe the Raiders are taking Jeanty, there’s no sense in overthinking it. And don’t worry about the debate over positional value.
“Hell of a running back,” an executive said. “I’ve never seen balance and burst like that. He is one of those (elite types of running backs) you can take in the top eight or top 10. You get one of those every few years.”
Raiders coach Pete Carroll has pounded the table for running backs in the past with the Seattle Seahawks. Philosophically, he wants to lean on a strong ground game to help quarterback Geno Smith, but to also control the clock and allieviate pressure from his defense. Carroll is also big on cornerbacks, but this is viewed as a bit too early for Michigan’s Will Johnson or Texas’ Jahdae Barron.
If the Jaguars take Jeanty, the Raiders should shift their focus to Graham. It feels like those two players will be off the board during this pair of picks.
Another option, if the Raiders don’t think they can extend left tackle Kolton Miller, would be to move him and add Membou or Simmons.
Finally, one team believed McMillan was a legitimate possibility. Raiders run game coordinator and offensive line coach Brennan Carroll coached McMillan for a couple of seasons at Arizona.
Ashton Jeanty Boise State HT
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Reminiscent of LaDainian Tomlinson in balance, instincts and versatility
7. New York Jets: Armand Membou, OT, Missouri
The Jets would be taking a tackle in the first round for the second year in a row, and it’s hard to fault that strategy. New coach Aaron Glenn might be a defensive guy, but he recognized how important it was to have an elite line during the Detroit Lions’ renaissance.
Membou just turned 21 last month, so he’s young and has some growing up to do. But if he does, he could realistically become the best tackle in the draft class.
Warren has been linked to the Jets, and that does still sound like a possibility. Offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand will install a run-heavy scheme to support quarterback Justin Fields, and Warren could have a useful role in that regard.
Still, it makes more sense to solidify the line.
Armand Membou Missouri HT
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Likely long-term starting OT with tools reminiscent of Troy Fautanu
8. Carolina Panthers: Jalon Walker, edge/LB, Georgia
He’s a versatile player who could line up on the edge or the second level, and the Panthers desperately need players who can attack the quarterback. Walker only tallied 12.5 sacks in three seasons at Georgia, so he’ll need to be a more productive pro to justify the high pick. But he has enough physical tools to warrant the hype as a legit top-10 candidate.
Some evaluators believe he’s better off the ball, so he could be used more in space depending on the scheme. He’s explosive with a good motor and impressive quickness off the snap. It’s unclear if he could be an every-down edge player, so the coaching staff will need to get creative.
“He’s one of the better pass rushers in the draft,” an executive said. “They need a pass rusher more than anything.”
The Panthers would love it if Graham fell, but they can’t count on it. They’re another spot that would also make sense for Warren, as they try to get more help for quarterback Bryce Young. The organization hasn’t had enough consistent production at tight end in the post-Greg Olsen era.
Jalon Walker Georgia HT
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Pass-rush upside and overall versatility make him one of the best talents in the class
9. New Orleans Saints: Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State
This is another tough one to call. The Saints have been all over the quarterbacks in the class, getting particularly involved in Dart and Texas’ Quinn Ewers. Dart could be a first-rounder, but Ewers is more likely a Day 2 pick.
But where do they stand on Sanders? The Saints had a minimal presence at his pro day, for what it’s worth, but it wouldn’t be the least bit shocking if he fell to them. More likely, according to a couple of executives, the Saints could trade back into the first round to get their quarterback.
They need help at all three levels of the defense, but they also need offensive playmakers. Warren is the best tight end in the class and will be an asset for whichever QB is throwing him the ball.
Tyler Warren Penn State HT
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Agile-footed TE with dependable hands and a hunger to create YAC
10. Chicago Bears: Josh Simmons, OT, Ohio State
This came down to both sides of the trenches. Texas A&M pass rusher Shemar Stewart drew consideration, and Marshall’s Mike Green could be another possibility if the Bears are comfortable with him.
But an executive said something that swayed the choice to Simmons.
“They’re a left tackle away from having one of the better offensive lines in football. Protect (quarterback Caleb Williams), and make sure (coach) Ben (Johnson) can establish the run to help the kid even more.”
Johnson greatly benefited from the Lions’ high-end offensive line. They’ve already added interior linemen Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman and Jonah Jackson this offseason, and right tackle Darnell Wright was a first-round pick in 2023. Their mission was clear.
Simmons isn’t a clean prospect, but he has elite potential if it all comes together. Teams want him to mature and prove he’s fully dedicated to football, but it’s also going to be up to his next team to bring that element out of him.
Simmons tore his patellar tendon in October. Teams don’t sound concerned about his long-term availability, as they anticipate he’ll be ready around the start of the regular season. It’ll take some patience, but Simmons is talented enough to reward their belief.
Josh Simmons Ohio State HT
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Nimble, coordinated blocker with the poise and body control to be a long-term starting left tackle
(Photo: Eakin Howard / Getty Images)
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