Which V.P. Pick Will Help Trump Win? Four Columnists Rate the Field.

Patrick Healy, the deputy Opinion editor, hosted an online conversation with the Times Opinion columnists Ross Douthat, David French, Michelle Goldberg and Bret Stephens to discuss Donald Trump’s upcoming vice-presidential pick: who he might choose; who would help Mr. Trump the most electorally; the strengths and weaknesses of several possible running mates; and which of them might pose the biggest threat to President Biden’s re-election chances.

Patrick Healy: Folks, in a presidential race where there has been relatively little movement in the polls, and so many voters have unchanging views of the candidates, there’s one big surprise coming: who Donald Trump picks as his running mate. So illuminate things for me: Is there a V.P. candidate who would make a genuine difference for Trump in the campaign and in the November election vote? What matters most about Trump’s choice? Bret?

Bret Stephens: The choice is especially consequential this year for two reasons. First, as Democrats like to point out when questions of Joe Biden’s age come up, Trump is also pretty damn old. So the possibility that his vice president would succeed Trump in the middle of his term is not implausible. Second, the choice will tell us if Trump wants to double down on MAGA-land or broaden his base by implicitly reaching out to more independent voters. If, say, he chooses someone like North Dakota’s Doug Burgum, he’s signaling the former. If it’s Florida Senator Marco Rubio, the latter.

Ross Douthat: It’s not just that Trump is old, it’s also that — fears of his permanent power notwithstanding — he’s term-limited, which means that his V.P. choice will get to start their own presidential campaign relatively early, rather than suffer loyally through the slings and arrows of a first term and re-election campaign as a normal vice-presidential pick would have to do. Which is part of the answer to why anyone would want this job, after watching Mike Pence’s fate; yes, there’s a good chance Trump will sabotage any would-be successor, but there’s also a chance that Trump’s V.P. will be seen a president-in-waiting by, say, late 2025.

As to the choice, I would divide it slightly differently. I’d say there are:

• Outreach picks, where Trump is trying to win over a key demographic (picking Senator Tim Scott in the hopes it helps him win more African American men, say, or picking Representative Elise Stefanik in a bid for suburban women);

• Reassurance picks, where Trump is trying to signal that he’ll actually be running a somewhat normal G.O.P. administration (Rubio and Senator Tom Cotton would fall into this category, as would a dark horse like Gov. Glenn Youngkin);

• And Trumpist/populist picks, where Trump is choosing based on some combination of personal loyalty and ideological affinity (Senator J.D. Vance is the leading contender in this category).

David French: Ross raises a question that goes beyond this election. How much does Donald Trump represent an interruption of Reagan Republicanism versus its total disruption?

Patrick: How would the V.P. pick help answer that question?

David: Selecting Tom Cotton would be a strong signal that he knows that normie Republicans are still indispensable to his coalition. Selecting J.D. Vance would send a very different message. Vance is perhaps populism’s most eloquent voice, and choosing him would signal that this is most definitely not your father’s G.O.P. A Rubio choice would split the difference. He’s had a populist conversion, but few people put him in the same category as Vance — either as a matter of conviction or persuasion for populist causes.